December 1, 2021
Gates Polls Limited – Ahead of the forthcoming People’s Democratic Party (PDP) primary election to determine the flag bearer in Ekiti State Gubernatorial election slated for June 18th 2022, a new public opinion poll conducted by Gates Polls has revealed that the party’s ticket will be won or lost by one of Engr. Segun Oni, a former governor, Chief Bisi Kolawole, the anointed candidate of the former governor Ayodele Fayose and Senator Biodun Olujimi, the senator representing Ekiti South senatorial district in the red chamber.
The poll was conducted between 22nd and 26th November 2021, and it aims at measuring both the popularity of each candidate and the likely choice by the party members in the forthcoming Governorship primary election in Ekiti state.
From the results of 300 randomly selected party executives, ex-officios and card carrying People’s Democratic Party (PDP) members across all the LGA in Ekiti state and interviewed via online, GSM and face-to-face: Engr. Segun Oni polled (23 percent); Chief Bisi Kolawole polled 19 percent; Senator Biodun Olujimi, (10 percent); and the remaining aspirants cumulatively polled (9 percent) while about 39 percent of the party members are undecided or simply refused to divulge their choice of candidate.
Meanwhile, 34 percent of polled party members of the People’s Democratic Party are not sure the eventual party candidate at the primaries will make it to Oke Ayoba in 2022 partly due to the deep division in the party and federal might.
Also, the poll also revealed that while 91 percent of respondents claimed to have updated their membership registration, 58 percent were certain they would vote if the indirect primary is adopted as against 94 should the party adopt a direct primary method.
On the issue of gender, a significant proportion (69 percent) of party members think it is not a variable while 38 percent believe that the gubernatorial candidate of the party should emerge from Ekiti south senatorial district for equity.
In addition, the poll revealed that a significant proportion of party members voters (94 percent) favoured open direct primary but are skeptical that the party may stick to its traditional delegate election format.
Results from the poll indicated that while Engr. Segun Oni appeared to enjoy a dominant support from the North senatorial district of the state, Ekiti North (61 percent), Ekiti Central (21 percent) and Ekiti South (18 percent); Chief Bisi Kolawole support base was mainly in Ekiti Central (66 percent); Ekiti North (21 percent), Ekiti South (14 percent); senatorial districts. While Senator Biodun Olujimi and Prof. Kolapo Eleka Ekiti South (42 percent and 31percent ) respectively are the most preferred aspirants in Ekiti South senatorial district.
Similarly, the poll highlighted Oni’s support across all age categories ranging the working-class of ages 36 to 60 years (56 percent), the senior citizens aged 61 and above (23 percent) and the youths aged between 18 and 35 years (20 percent); compared to Kolawole who averaged 51 percent, 14 percent, 35 percent for youths, working-class and senior citizens respectively. And Olujimi who averaged 20 percent, 53 percent, and 27 percent age categories respectively.
In conclusion, this poll has Oni in an early lead for the January, 2022 PDP governorship primary election in Ekiti state with a single digit (9-piont) lead over the next candidate, Kolawole. However, the margin only goes to show that the forthcoming People’s Democratic Party primary election is one to look forward to considering the sheer number of party members (39 percent) who remain either undecided or seek confidentiality as to their choice of candidate meaning the results is opened.
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The multi prong survey of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) members in Ekiti state was conducted by Gates Polls from November 22-27, 2021. It involved online, GSM and face-to-face methods from a state-wide sample in Ekiti State. 300 randomly selected PDP party members aged 18 years and above, representing the three senatorial districts of the state, were interviewed.
The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Of the 300 completed interviews, 51 percent were male and 49 percent female respondents. Samples for the poll were selected randomly for the senatorial districts in representation of the state’s population – Ekiti North (29 percent), Ekiti Central (38 percent), and Ekiti South (32 percent). Also, 28 percent of respondents were aged between 18 and 35 years; 61 percent between 36 and 60 years; and 11 percent above 61 years. In terms of employment status of respondents, top 5 respondents are: Self-employed (20 percent), Civil servants (22 percent), professional workers (8 percent), Farmers/Agric workers (27 percent); Students (18 percent) and others (5 percent).
Field work for all Gates Polls surveys is conducted by Gates Polls Academy, a subsidiary of Gates Polls Limited. See methodology.
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December 1st, 2021
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